Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Frozen Orb Blitz

There's been a lot of talk about the new 3.3.3 patch coming out soon.  On top of the buffs to frost mages and massive PvP overhaul, there will be a new vendor in the game.  What's he want?

Frozen Orbs

Yes, the things that have been filling our bags giving us nothing to do will be the new hotness.  You will be able to exchange them for a number of things.

4 Frozen Orbs for 1 Runed Orb
6 Frozen Orbs for 1 Crusader Orb
1 Frozen Orb for an Eternal Shadow, Life, Fire, Earth, Water, or Air.
1 Frozen Orb for 1 Frost Lotus
6 Frozen Orbs for a Frosty Flying Carpet Pattern

There's been a lot of doomsday about what is going to happen to the economy due to this change.  Here are my predictions.

The Cost of Frozen Orbs: Up (20-30g).  
Frozen orbs used to have a value close to the vendor price, because the supply greatly surpassed the demand.  Now that Frozen Orbs can be traded for items with essentially limitless demand, it will have a cost in line with those items.  Some servers with a higher price for Eternal Fire might see a higher price for Frozen Orbs.

The Cost of Runed and Crusader Orbs: Unchanged.
Why would you trade 10 emblems for a frozen orb to get a runed orb that costs 18 emblemes or a crusader orb that costs 15 emblems.

The Cost of Eternal Earth, Water, and Air: Unchanged.
These Eternals are insignificant, and will not be purchased with Frozen Orbs, except from some of the less educated players.

The Cost of Eternal Life and Shadow: UP (15-20g)
One of the other things 3.3.3 is doing is removing the CD for Tailoring Cloth.  These eternals will be used for stacks of cloth and thus will go up in price.

The Cost of Eternal Fire: UP (25-30g)
Despite this being about Frozen Orbs, I believe this is the item to balance around.  Eternal fire is used for the Titansteel CD daily as well as Spellweave (now off CD).  It's always the most expensive Eternal, and it will be the deciding factor.  Frozen Orbs will adjust to match this, not the other way around.

The Cost of Frost Lotus: DOWN (20-30g)
This is the big swing item on 3.3.3.  Not surprising, Frost Lotus will be the same price as the Frozen Orb.  Since the supply will be much larger, the price of these lotuses will drop to significantly.

Now for the Pull-Through changes.

Flasks: DOWN (15-20g)
Now that people can get cheap lotuses, you can buy cheap flasks.  Alchemists will still be making decent money as the net profit per flask will be about the same, but people will be willing to buy more.  You'll start seeing people with flasks for BGs and PuG raids more often.

Herbs: UP (20-40g stack)
With Frozen Orbs, there will be less incentive to farm for Lotuses, which was bringing down the price of other herbs.  I don't think it'll be a major increase as farming for frozen orbs is difficult.  But I think we'll see some people finally drop Herbalism for something with more raiding value.

Titansteel: DOWN
Taken off of CD, Titansteel will now be limited by the cost of the materials.  In addition, its price will be normalized by the fact that a limited supply on the AH would mean a miner would simply go make more and sell it, rather than the possible shortages we see today.

Moonshroud, Ebonweave, and Spellweave: DOWN
Spellweave will still be the most expensive one, but now that there's no CD limiting these cloths, their value will be close to the cost of mats.  No need to buy CDs anymore!

Infinite Dust: Unchanged
Despite the fact that more imbued frostweave will be needed, the cost of Infinite dust won't change.  More people will be running random dungeons for the orb/emblems, and the increased drop of greens for DE will offset the cloth.

Leg Enhancements: UP
Well duh.  Frozen Orbs go up in price and this market was already decent.  Now you just up the price by 15g to reflect the increased cost in mats.

Glyphs: Unchanged
Despite the higher cost in herbs, I believe the glyph market will remain mostly unchanged through this economic shift.  The thing that changes for scribes is below.

Snowfall Ink and Runescrolls: UP
Most of the cost of making glyphs was made up for by selling inks of the sea and the runescrolls made by them.  This is where scribes will get their money back to continue offering glyphs at the same price.

That's all I got right now.  The list can probably expand, but these are the big hitters.

No comments:

Post a Comment